Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 0.327783 0.370928 0.417733 0.472302 0.534205 0.602282 0.682877
2025-10-19 0.266210 0.323798 0.390982 0.475235 0.578207 0.700143 0.855782
2025-10-26 0.224686 0.291570 0.374864 0.486419 0.632270 0.816981 1.069483
2025-11-02 0.181756 0.250216 0.340710 0.469447 0.648535 0.889833 1.241330
2025-11-09 0.146467 0.212895 0.305661 0.445198 0.650795 0.944223 1.397755
2025-11-16 0.123043 0.188123 0.283781 0.435365 0.671075 1.026173 1.606558
2025-11-23 0.104016 0.166676 0.263265 0.423944 0.686698 1.103102 1.820376
2025-11-30 0.093009 0.155802 0.257054 0.433441 0.736032 1.239293 2.150818
2025-12-07 0.079263 0.138314 0.237564 0.417993 0.741549 1.304338 2.372439
2025-12-14 0.069282 0.125656 0.224198 0.410728 0.759616 1.392906 2.649623
2025-12-21 0.060915 0.114574 0.211907 0.403324 0.775925 1.480189 2.938321
2025-12-28 0.056416 0.109907 0.210474 0.415713 0.831005 1.647481 3.409373
2026-01-04 0.050597 0.102087 0.202412 0.414888 0.861841 1.775986 3.832520
2026-01-11 0.046069 0.096169 0.197231 0.419128 0.903907 1.934442 4.349313
2026-01-18 0.042735 0.092208 0.195433 0.430194 0.962403 2.137319 5.002886
2026-01-25 0.037616 0.083698 0.182917 0.416089 0.963272 2.214687 5.383474
2026-02-01 0.032670 0.074845 0.168404 0.395246 0.945389 2.246740 5.662353
2026-02-08 0.029288 0.069047 0.159872 0.386956 0.955852 2.347138 6.130774
2026-02-15 0.026226 0.063552 0.151256 0.377123 0.960956 2.435429 6.585425
2026-02-22 0.024639 0.061376 0.150173 0.385759 1.014206 2.653658 7.430966
2026-03-01 0.021978 0.056157 0.140956 0.372198 1.007292 2.714591 7.852435
2026-03-08 0.019998 0.052390 0.134842 0.365852 1.018805 2.826943 8.444423
2026-03-15 0.018227 0.048918 0.129004 0.359350 1.028840 2.936988 9.052014